In Tehran, the fall of Assad has been a significant blow, resulting in the loss of a major ally and strategic location in Syria. Assad’s regime was crucial in Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’, involving mainly Shiite leaders and militant groups backed by Iran.
This year has been challenging for Iran; Hezbollah, its key ally in Lebanon, weakened due to conflict with Israel, and Hamas in Gaza suffered after airstrikes. Iran also faced Israeli attacks on its targets in Syria and on its own soil.
The Syrian rebels, who are now in power, have expressed hostility towards Iran. Shortly after Assad’s fall, rebels stormed the Iranian embassy in Damascus.
Rebels’ leader al-Sharaa called Syria “purified” of Assad and his allies, including Hezbollah, Russia, and Iran. Despite this, Iran’s Vice President Zarif expressed willingness to establish good relations with the new Syrian government, claiming Iran has always supported the Syrian people.
Supreme Leader Khamenei, however, attributed Assad’s downfall to a plan by the US and Israel, Iran’s adversaries. Chances of Iran fostering ties with the new Syrian rulers appear slim, given their history of supporting Assad through his oppressive rule.
For over four decades, Iran had significant control in Syria, via the Revolutionary Guard and numerous military bases. Syria was strategically vital for supplying arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Public criticism in Iran questions the government’s investment in Syria, with discussions on what went wrong. President Pezeshkian seeks to re-engage with the West on a nuclear deal, but Tehran’s foreign policy remains undecided.
Analyst Ali Alfoneh highlights internal debate on whether to negotiate with Trump or continue the nuclear agenda. With Trump soon to return to the presidency, the future of a deal is uncertain.
While Russia negotiates with Syrian rebels to retain its military bases, Iran’s potential ties with the new Syrian government remain unclear.
Source: NOS