The latest Polling Indicator, an average of seat predictions from Ipsos I&O and Verian/EenVandaag, shows a continued rise for the CDA, currently holding 5 seats in the House of Representatives, now polling at 11 to 15 seats. Meanwhile, the PVV remains the largest party with 36 to 42 seats, slightly declining from earlier this year.
NSC, led by Pieter Omtzigt, performs worse than three months ago, dropping from 20 seats to 0 to 3 in the polls. Political scientist Tom Louwerse notes that while the NSC’s position is vulnerable as a newcomer, there is potential for recovery.
The current coalition, which includes VVD, PVV, and BBB, risks losing its majority in parliament due to NSC’s decline. Ipsos I&O researchers Peter Kanne and Asher van der Schelde point out that despite the cabinet’s unpopularity, voter satisfaction with the coalition’s goals helps maintain their polling numbers.
Ipsos I&O also reveals that right-wing voters view NSC as an obstacle. The CDA’s gains primarily come from NSC and, to a lesser extent, VVD.
Meanwhile, the left-wing opposition gains little from the dissatisfaction with the cabinet. D66 is polling at 11 to 14 seats, while GroenLinks/PvdA remains steady at 23 to 27 seats.
The SP shows a slight upward trend with 6 to 8 seats, and other parties like the Party for the Animals and Volt show modest changes in their polling numbers.
Source: NOS